When did Herod the Great Die?

The date for the death of Herod the Great is usually thought to be 4 B.C. This is based on a chronology provided by the Jewish historian Josephus, who was usually accurate about such things and wrote in great detail about Herod's life. It is possible to use a chronology provided by Josephus and arrive at a date of 4 B.C. for Herod's death. In fact I would suggest that Josephus, writing about 100 years after Herod, thought Herod died in 4 B.C. However, other information provided by Josephus makes the 4 B.C. date implausible. I think 1 B.C. is the more likely date. This affects estimates for the date of the birth of Jesus, who was born before Herod died.

Josephus describes a series of events leading to Herod's death. On a day when Herod has a man named Mathias killed and appoints a new high priest, Josephus says "And that very night there was an eclipse of the moon." [Josephus: Antiquities 17:6:4] A sequence of events then leads up to Herod's death, which is followed shortly afterwards by a Passover. Eclipses make excellent dating markers, because today we can know precisely when they occurred, even in the distant past. The standard understanding is that this was the eclipse of March 13, 4 B.C. Passover was exactly one month later. Lunar eclipses occur only during full moons, and Passover is also always on a full moon. (For a tool to see when past eclipses occurred, see  http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/JLEX/JLEX-AS.html, set the city to Jerusalem and dial in the century before Christ. Because there was no year 0 B.C., in this tool the year 0 is 1 B.C., -1 is 2 B.C., etc.) Using the eclipse described by Josephus, there are three problems with a 4 B.C. date - a minor problem, a major problem, and an enormous problem.

The minor problem with identifying the 4 B.C eclipse as the one mentioned by Josephus is that it wasn't much of an eclipse. The 4 B.C. eclipse was only a partial eclipse, it did not begin until after midnight (12:03 a.m) Jerusalem time, and at its maximum extent it covered less than half of the moon. As astronomical events go, this was a minor event that would not be widely noticed, and it would seem surprising to find it noted by a historian - it is the only eclipse Josephus mentions in all his writings.

The major problem is that there was exactly one lunar month between the eclipse and Passover. During that time Josephus says the following things happened. I have placed next to these events what I think would be a minimum time duration for each.
1. Herod slowly got sick with worms and sent for physicians (2 days) [Antiquities 17:6:5]
2. At his physicians' recommendation, he traveled to a warm bath spot beyond the Jordan to bathe (2 days)
3. He got sicker and returned to Jericho. He now believes he will die (2 days)
4. He called to him all the leading men of the Jewish nation, and they came. He imprisons them, ordering that they be executed when he dies, so that men would mourn his death (4 days)
5. Herod receives from Rome a letter, Herod briefly revives and he orders Antipater killed (1 day) [Antiquities 17:7:1]
6. He makes numerous appointments, and five days after having Antipater killed, Herod dies (5 days) [Antiquities 17:8:1]
7. Salome and Alexas release the imprisoned officials, saying this was Herod's order, and then afterward announce that Herod has died (1 day) [Antiquities 17:8:2]
8. Herod's body is moved from Jericho to Herculaneum, where a very elaborate funeral for Herod is held and he was buried (2 days) [Antiquities 17:8:3]
9. Archelaus mourns for 7 days as prescribed by tradition (7 days) [Antiquities 17:8:4]
10. Archelaus goes up to the Temple and is installed as the new head of government, and greets the people (1 day)
11. Some Jewish leaders petition Archelaus to appoint a different high priest and punish some of Herod's friends (1 day)[Antiquities 17:9:1]
12. Archelaus sends many messengers to argue with the people about this, all of whom are badly received (3 days)
13. Passover approaches, and Archelaus has to break up a seditious group gathering ahead of the feast. During the feast of Passover itself, violence is extreme and 3000 men are killed. (2 days) [Antiquities 17:9:3]

The total days in this sequence is 33, which is longer than the one lunar month between the eclipse and Passover. Furthermore, the times I have listed for these events are minimums, and for some of them one would naturally assume they took much longer. The slow sickness and attempted treatment read as if they took longer than I have allowed, and there is no good reason to cram the letter from Rome, brief recovery, and execution of Antipater all into 1 day. Finally, the rebellion against Archelaus probably took much longer than the total of 6 days I have allowed. In conclusion, in 4 B.C., there was not enough time between the eclipse and the Passover.

And yet, there is still a bigger problem. The date for the 4 B.C. eclipse, March 3, fell on the Jewish holiday of Purim. The reason Josephus mentions the eclipse is to tie it to Herod's execution of 40 Jewish zealots who tore down statues of Roman eagles that Herod set up at the gate of the temple. It is unlikely that Herod was so politically tone-deaf as to execute Jewish patriots on the holiday that celebrates the fact that Jews were saved from execution in the days of Esther. Furthermore, Herod apparently convened a court to make the sentence, and it is more unlikely that a court would be convened on a holiday. Finally, Josephus says this happened on a Jewish "fast day" [Antiquities 17:6:3 and 17:6:4]. But Purim could not be a fast day - it was a feast day, a celebration day. The March 3 day must be wrong. This all could not have happened on Purim.

A better candidate eclipse is the eclipse of January 9, 1 B.C. This was a total eclipse beginning in Jerusalem at 10:26 p.m., with totality of the eclipse lasting for 79 minutes. In 1 B.C., Passover came three months later, allowing enough time for the events described in Josephus to occur. One can read Josephus online here, beginning with the passages I have cited: http://www.biblestudytools.com/history/flavius-josephus/antiquities-jews/book-17/chapter-6.html?p=3