Biblical Hebrew Weak Verbs

I teach a Biblical Hebrew class. Most Biblical Hebrew textbooks devote multiple chapters to the study of "weak" verbs, that is verbs that have one or more guttural letters, the letters vav or he, or a second letter doubled. I believe for most English speakers who are learning to read Biblical Hebrew (not to speak it), this is unnecessarily complex. Usually, all a reader needs to do is find the three letter lexical form of the verb. Once the three letters are known, the student will either know the verb due to earlier memorization, or the student can look it up in a lexicon.

The following method for finding the three letter lexical verb form was recommended to me by my Hebrew professor at Baylor University, Dr. Edward Dalglish. Follow the flow chart, and the three letters can be identified for more than 95% of Hebrew verbs that appear in the Bible. The exceptions (several of which are identified on the chart) are well known verbs which are usually recognizable without the aid of the chart. If the chart looks a bit complex, remember that it takes the place of multiple chapters in a textbook. Also remember that this chart is for identifying verbs so they can be read - I wouldn't recommend this approach for people who are attempting to become conversational in Hebrew.

Click on the chart to see the whole thing.

Unspoken in Any Language

The Old Testament uses the divine name "Yahweh" 6828 times. This is the primary designation used for God, and is used in such important verses as "I am Yahweh your God who brought you out of the land of Egypt..." at the beginning of the ten commandments. God told Moses at the burning bush that His name was "I am", and in the Hebrew language Yahweh is the third person variant of that, "He is."

Given the importance assigned to this name, it is a curiosity that the name Yahweh is virtually unspoken in any language. Religious Jews, when reading the Bible, substitute "Adonai" (meaning lord/master) for Yahweh, and when speaking about Him substitute "HaShem" (the name).

In the Septuagint, the Greek translation of the Old Testament, the choice was made not to transliterate Yahweh, but to substitute "kurios"(lord/master). The New Testament continues this usage.

English language Bibles usually use "The LORD" in all capital letters for Yahweh. A bit more frequent is the appearance of Jehovah, which combines Germanic consonants (YHWH = JHVH) and the vowels in Adonai. Yahweh occasionally makes appearances in Christian songs, but this is rare.

There are even hints in the New Testament that Jesus and the High Priests may have shied away from using the name, Yahweh. The high priest asks "Are you the Christ the Son of 'the Blessed.'" Jesus answered that "you will see the Son of Man sitting at the right hand of 'the Power.'"

When was the Exodus?/Amarna Letters

When was the Exodus?

In trying to date the events of the second millennium B.C., the first major decision is when to date the exodus. These are some of the reasons this is difficult to do:

1. Saul was the king before David, but there is no clear indication how long he reigned. 1 Sam 13:1 looks as if it was intended to tell us how long Saul reigned, but part of the verse seems to have been lost. Acts 13:21, which was written more than a thousand years later, says Saul reigned forty years.
2. Before Saul, Samuel judged Israel for some period of time, but we are not told how long this was.
3. Before Samuel, a long series of judges ruled in Israel, as described in the book of Judges. Judges does provide some chronological information, but the judges appear to be regional in their influence rather than national. They may have overlapped each other, or there may have been some time between judges not mentioned.
4. The events described in the end of the book of Judges (Judges 17-21) appear to have occurred not at the end of the period of the judges, but closer to the beginning. This must be so, since Phineas is still the High Priest (Judg 20:28), and Phineas is only the grandson of Aaron, the brother of Moses.
5. The length of Joshua’s administration and that of his companions (Judg 2:7) before the cycle of the judges begins is not given.
6. Unlike the later books of the Bible, none of the Pharaohs in Genesis or Exodus are named. This was in keeping with Egyptian custom at the time, but it is most unfortunate for historians. The unnamed Pharaohs include the Pharaoh who attempted to take Abram’s wife (Gen 12:15), the Pharaoh who knew Joseph (Gen 41-50), the Pharaoh who did not know Joseph (Exod 1:8), the Pharaoh who forced Moses to flee to Midian (Exod 2:15), and the Pharaoh of the exodus. Particularly frustrating for the historian is that the Bible actually names the midwives who thwarted Pharaoh in Exod 1:15, but does not name the Pharaoh. This makes it difficult to correlate the Bible’s chronology with an Egyptian chronology.

The Merneptah Stele is a record of Pharaoh Merneptah’s (1213-1203 B.C.) military campaigns, including a campaign into Canaan, in which it says “Israel is laid waste and his seed is not.” This is an extra-Biblical record that places Israel in Canaan prior to 1200 B.C. As a result, no reasonable theory can put the exodus or the conquest of Canaan after 1200 B.C.

There are two prominent theories on the date of the exodus. The first is that the exodus occurred in the 15^th century B.C. and the second is that the exodus occurred in the 13^th century B.C.

The early exodus theory, the theory that the exodus occurred in the 15^th century B.C., is based on the verse in 1 Kings 6:1, which says that Solomon’s Temple was built exactly 480 years after the exodus. Using a date of 966 B.C. for Solomon’s Temple (a date that is at least close to correct), this would place the exodus at 1446 B.C. and the battle of Jericho 40 years later in 1406 B.C. This chronology finds support from Jepthah’s line in the book of Judges (Judges 11:26), indicating that it had been 300 years since the events of the exodus.

The later exodus theory, the theory that the exodus occurred in the 13^th century B.C., is based on a mix of archeological evidence and the Bible’s identification of the cities of Rameses (Gen 47:11, Exodus 1:11, 12:37, Numbers 33:3, 33:5). Ramesses II, who reigned from 1279 to 1213 B.C. according to the standard Egyptian chronology, then becomes the Pharaoh of the exodus.Popular movies such as The Ten Commandments and Prince of Egypt reflect the later exodus theory.

Both theories have been critiqued. Critics of the early theory point out that the verse in 1 Kings was written more than 500 years after the exodus, calling into question its accuracy as a historical record. Also, the number 480 could be considered symbolic in biblical numerology (12x 40). Jepthah’s 300 year statement could also be considered as coming from a less than reliable source. Critics of the late theory point out that the city or district of Ramesses may have existed before it was given that name, or the Biblical scribes may have updated the names to be contemporary. Also archeologists do not agree on the chronology or meaning of their evidence (Hazor was burned for sure, but was this when Joshua burned it, or when Sisera was defeated by Deborah and Barak, or some other time? Etc.)
Fortunately, there is another line of evidence available that can be used to choose between the early and late theories. This set of evidence is the Amarna Letters.
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Amarna Letters
The Amarna Letters are correspondence from various Middle Eastern rulers to Pharaoh, starting in the last decade of the reign of Amenhotep III, who ruled from 1388 to 1351 B.C, and ending prior to when Amarna was abandoned in 1332 B.C. Many of these letters were from cities in Canaan. Because the dates for the Amarna Letters fall between the early exodus theory and the late exodus theory, they can be used to choose between the theories. If the Amarna Letters match the Biblical description of Canaan at the time of the Judges, shortly after Joshua, then the early theory is correct. If not, then the late theory is correct.

Dating the Amarna Letters
The astute reader will realize that it is first necessary to verify that the dates given above for the Amarna Letters are correct, because if those dates are unreliable, then the Amarna Letters themselves will not give reliable evidence on the date of the Exodus. The date range of 1388 to 1332 is based on the Standard Egyptian Chronology. This chronology represents the majority view among scholars, but it is not without its detractors.
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Here are four reasons why we can date the Amarna Letters to around 1350 with confidence:
      1.  This is the date according to the standard Egyptian chronology.

2.     The letters cross-correlate with Babylonian records. For example, the Babylonian king Burna Buriash II wrote letter EA#6 to Pharaoh Amenhotep III. Burna Buriash II reigned from 1359-1333 B.C. and Amenhotep III from 1391-1353 B.C., using the most standard chronologies.

3.     The letters cross-correlate with Assyrian records. For example, the Assyrian king Ashur-uballit I wrote EA#15 to Pharaoh Akhenaton. Ashur-uballit I reigned from 1365-1330 and Akhenaton from 1353-1336, using the most standard chronologies.

4.     The Philistines are absent from the Amarna Letters. Letters sent from cities like Gaza, later a major Philistine city, instead come from Canaanite vassals to Egypt. This matches the historical record that the Philistines began to settle in Canaan around 1175 B.C.

5.     The Amurru kingdom (in what is modern day Lebanon) figures into multiple Amarna Letters. The Amurru kingdom was destroyed in 1200 by the Sea Peoples.

More reasons for a 1350 date for the Amarna letters could be offered, but this list should be sufficient, especially when we demonstrate, as we shall now endeavor to do, that this date is also consistent with the Biblical record.

Note that in dating the Amarna Letters, we have also strengthened the case for the conventional chronologies of Egypt, Babylon, and Assyria going back as far as the 14^th century B.C.
Despite agreeing that the Amarna letters were written in the 1388 to 1332 date range, scholars have oddly failed to reach a consensus as to whether they indicate an Israelite presence in the land. The central issue revolves around a people named the “Habiru” who are enemies of the Canaanites. Letters from Canaanite kings include numerous complaints about these “Habiru,” but scholars have split over whether Habiru = Hebrew in a Canaanite context.

Two prominent theories have identified the Habiru with the Hebrews. In one, a rascally character named Labayu with Habiru connections in the Amarna letters is identified with the Biblical King Saul of Israel. Note that this theory requires a highly unorthodox chronology, since Saul reigned around 1020 B.C., more than 300 years after the conventional chronology of the Amarna Letters. In the second theory, Labayu is identified with the Biblical Abimelech of Judges 9. This second theory fits the chronology better, and also fits the fact that both Abimelech and Labayu are associated with the city of Shechem.

Most scholars have rejected the Habiru = Hebrew connection, and do not believe that there was an Israelite presence in Canaan when the Amarna Letters were written. They point out that the linguistic connection between “Habiru” and “Hebrew” is not as strong as it sounds in English, and consider the identification of Labayu with Biblical characters to be fanciful.

This may be a case where scholars have understandably reacted against some fanciful theories, but have otherwise had difficulty seeing the forest for the trees. Therefore, we will make a brief overview of the geopolitical situation in the time of the Judges according to the Bible, then we will compare that to the geopolitical situation described in the Amarna Letters and see how good the match is.

The Bible names 28 cities that were under Israelite control early in the time of the Judges. This is not an exhaustive list of Israelite cities, it is only a list of those cities that appear in Biblical accounts:

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Beersheba (Judg 20:1)

Bethel (Judg 1:22-26)

Bethlehem

Beth Millo– uncertain location

Bezer (Deut 4:43) – uncertain location

Bochim (Judg 2:1) – uncertain location

Eshtaol (Judg 13:25)

Gibeah (Judg 19:12)

Gilgal– uncertain location

Golan (Deut 4:43) – uncertain location

Hebron

Jabesh-Gilead (Judg 21:9)

Kamon– uncertain location

Kedesh (Judg 4:6, etc.)

Mizpah (Judg 10:17)

Ophrah (Judg 6:11)

Penuel

Pirathon (Judg 12:13-14) – uncertain location

Ramah (Judg 19:13)

Ramoth-Gilead

Seirah (Judg 3:26) – uncertain location

Shamir (Judg 10:1)

Shechem

Shiloh

Succoth (Judg 8:5) (Deir Alla)

Thebez (Judg 9:50)

Timnath-heres

 Zorah (Judg 13:1)

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Below is a map of the Israelite cities. 

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This is a list of 26 Cities that, according to the Bible, were under Canaanite control early in the time of the Judges, at the time of the Amarna letters:

Achzib (Judg 1:31)

Ahlab (Judg 1:31)

Aijalon (Judg 1:34-35) – in Amarna letters

Akko (Judg 1:31)

Akhrabim Ascent

Aphik (Judg 1:31)

Beth Shean (Judg 1:27)

Beth Anath (Judg 1:33) – location uncertain

Beth Shemesh (Judg 1:33) – but came under Israelite control by the time of Samson

Gaza

Gezer (Judg 1:29)

Har Heres (Judg 1:34-35) – location uncertain

Harosheth Hagoyim (Judg 4:2)

Hazor (Judg 4:2)

Helbah Judg 1:31) – location uncertain

Ibleam (Judg 1:27)

Jerusalem (Judg 1:12)

Kitron (Judg 1:30)

Megiddo (Judg 1:27)

Nahalol (Judg 1:30)

Rehob (Judg 1:31)

Sela

Shaalbim (Judg 1:34-35)

Sidon (Judg 1:31)

Taanach (Judg 1:27)

Timnah

 

--> The fact that the Israelite cities outnumber the Canaanite cities 28 to 26 does not mean that there were more Israelite cities at this time; the numbers may be tilted since the Bible stories focused on the Israelites.

A glance at the maps will show that the Israelites tended to cluster in the hill country, while the Canaanites controlled the lower lands and all of the coastal plain near the Mediterranean Sea. Israel never exercised significant control of the coastal plain until the time of David and Solomon. The significance of this lies mainly in the fact that the main trade route through Canaan was up the coastal plain. As long as Egyptian trade could move unmolested through Canaan, through territory controlled by its vassal kings, the Egyptians could rightfully feel that they controlled Canaan. This was the geopolitical situation in the early days of the Judges.

So how do the Amarna Letters compare with this geopolitical situation? The Canaanite kings appear to be subservient to Egypt. Six Canaanite cities that appear on one of the lists above sent letters to Egypt – Akko, Jerusalem, Megiddo, Gezer, Hazor and Shechem. All six would eventually be controlled by the Israelites, but in the early Judges period, the first five are controlled by Canaanites, and only Shechem is controlled by Israel. Looking at the Amarna Letters, the first five all have Canaanite kings, while Shechem has as its king the very controversial Labayu, who appears to either be a Habiru or have some Habiru connection:
“I did not know that my son was associated with the Habiru” – Labayu [EA#252-254],
“Now shall we do as Labayu, who gave the land of Shechem to the Habiru?” – Abdu Heba of Jerusalem
”“The sons of Labayu have given the country to the Habiru” – Abdu-Heba of Jerusalem [EA#287])
 If Habiru does equal Hebrew, then this is a perfect six for six match with the early period of the Judges as described in the Bible. In fact, it may be likened to flipping a coin six times, calling heads fives times and tails once, and getting it right every time. However, advocates of the late exodus theory could respond by saying that their theory also predicts the first five, and the Habiru rule over Shechem is a lucky coincidence.

There is a second fact that can be offered into evidence. The king who complains about the Habiru by far the most is king Abdu-Heba of Jerusalem. In a typical example, writing to Pharaoh he says:

“May the king direct his attention to the archers, and may the king, my lord, send troops of archers, the king has no more lands. The Habiru sack the territories of the king. If there are archers (here) this year, all the territories of the king will remain (intact); but if there are no archers, the territories of the king, my lord, are lost!” [EA#286]

A quick glance at the Judges’ map offers a reason for Abdu-Heba’s concern – unlike the other Canaanite cities, Jerusalem is surrounded on all sides by Hebrew settlements, including several right on the doorstep of Jerusalem.

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Opponents of the Habiru = Hebrew connection argue that the Habiru of the Amarna Letters and other Ancient Near East documents appear to be simply a nomadic people associated with lawlessness. But perhaps we should allow “Habiru” to be a pejorative term that can refer to Hebrews as well as others. It is worth noting the Bible actually hints at this usage as well: “See, he has brought in to us a Hebrew to mock us” (Gen 39:14, see also Gen 39:17), according to Potiphar’s wife, who was probably not thinking exactly of House of Jacob when she said “Hebrew.”

In summary, the Amarna Letters are consistent with the early period of the Judges, and tend to favor the early exodus theory.

Patriarchal Chronology

 And Jacob said unto Pharaoh, The days of the years of my pilgrimage are an hundred and thirty years: few and evil have the days of the years of my life been, and have not attained unto the days of the years of the life of my fathers in the days of their pilgrimage. (Gen 47:9, KJV)

Abram/Abraham is 75 years old when he enters the land of Canaan (Gen 12:4). Sarai/Sarah is 10 years younger than Abram, so she is 65. Sarai is so beautiful at this age that she is dangerous to her husband (Gen 12:11-15).

Abram is 86 and Sarai 76 when Ishmael is born to Hagar. Sarai is apparently not past menopause yet (Gen 17:24-25).

Sarah at age 90 is past menopause (Gen 18:11, 21:5), but gives birth to Isaac miraculously.

Sarah dies at age 127 (Gen 23:1).

Isaac marries Rebekah at age 40 (Gen 25:20).

Isaac is 60 when he and Rebekah have twins, Jacob and Esau (Gen 25:26). Abraham is still alive at age 160.

Abraham dies at age 175 (Gen 25:7).

Esau marries at age 40 (Gen 26:34). Isaac is 100 at this time.

Ishmael dies at age 137 (Gen 25:17).

Jacob is 70 and Isaac 130 when Isaac goes blind and feels he is going to die, and gives a final blessing to his sons described in Genesis 27 (Deduced backwards from Gen 45:11 and 47:9). However, Isaac will live another 50 years. Jacob flees to Haran, to his uncle Laban at this time.

Jacob works for Laban for 7 years and is married at age 77. Jacob stays with Laban for 20 years total, fleeing with his wives, 11 sons and a daughter, none of whom would be older than 12 at the time (Gen 31:38). Jacob is 90 or 91.

Joseph is 17 when he begins to run into trouble with his brothers, when Jacob is 117. He is sold into Egypt by his brothers (Gen 37:2).

Isaac dies at age 180 (Gen 35:28). Jacob is 120 at this time, and Joseph is 29, already in Egypt.

Joseph becomes Prime Minister of Egypt at age 30 (Gen 41:46).

Joseph is 39 when he reveals himself to his brothers. This is after 7 good years and 2 famine years (Gen 45:11). Jacob and his entire clan come to Egypt to join Joseph, and Jacob is 130 years old (Gen 47:9). Jacob's clan includes 12 sons, 52 grandsons, 4 great grandsons and one daughter. Other females, wives and daughters, are present but not numbered. Jacob's wives have died by now.

Jacob dies at age 147 (Gen 47:28).

Joseph dies at age 110 (Gen 50:22).

Moses dies at the age of 120 (Deut 34:7), but most adults above the age of 20 did not live through the 40 year wilderness experience (Numbers 14 story), so most life spans by that time were comparable to today.

Joshua dies at age 110 (Josh 24:29).

Job, who lived sometime during the age of the patriarchs lived 140 years after his misfortune (Job 42:16). The Septuagint says that Job lived 170 years after his misfortune, for a total life span of 240 years.

None of the kings of Israel or Judah live more than 70 years.

Oily Misunderstandings

    Reading the newspapers on the subject of oil production, gas prices, etc. in an election year can be more misleading than usual, and made even worse by the Iran situation. So in the following paragraphs I will try to make a few points to clear things up.
    Point 1 - Sanctions on the Iranian oil industry will be ineffective. We are using sanctions on Iran to try to force them to desist from their nuclear weapons program or to persuade Israel to not attack or something. The sanctions really are unprecedented in scope, as we are making it difficult to almost impossible to execute bank transactions with Iran. And yet, this is all a charade, though we may not mean it that way. Oil is totally fungible, and the oil Iran pumps will be sold to somebody who will find some way to pay. It may even get resold to somebody else like the U.S. or Israel. Furthermore, let's assume that we were successful in choking off Iran's oil exports, which are nearly 3 million barrels per day out of a world supply of 85 million barrels per day. If we did that, the price of oil and gas would skyrocket, which is exactly what we don't want.
    Point 2 - Saudi Arabia can't make up any shortfalls of production. The Saudis say they can, but they can't. The Saudis have produced 9-10 million barrels a day for the last ten years through thick and thin, regardless of the price of oil. To stay at a level close to 10 million, they are using extraordinary measures to offset their older oil fields, which have declining production. So it is no use pressuring OPEC to try to get them to produce more. OPEC hasn't increased their production any over the last ten years. Prices over $100/barrel are incentive enough for them to pump all they can.
    Point 3 - The U.S. isn't going to get any oil production from "shale oil" in the near or medium term future. Terminology has helped confuse this topic, since we are now getting increased oil production from shale fields in North Dakota and from the Eagle Shale fields in Texas. However, this oil is liquid oil in shale fields, and is now available through a technology known as "fracking", which forces the liquid out through high pressure. This oil is sometimes called "tight" oil, but the key thing to remember is that it is liquid - it flows. Some commentators have said that the U.S. has massive oil reserves in shale fields such as the Green River formation in Colorado, but that oil is not liquid, it is shale rock. It is possible to get oil out of the rock, but you have to cook the rock first. As an analogy, it is easier to get oil out of asphalt than it is to get oil out of shale. At $100/barrel, it is not economically feasible to try to get oil out of shale. The price must first go very much higher. Even then, as you might imagine, the rate at which we can get this oil by cooking rocks will never approach those liquid oil fields where the high pressure oil just gushes up out of the earth. That was the closest thing to free wealth the world has ever seen, and most of those fields are nearly played out.

When did Herod the Great Die?

The date for the death of Herod the Great is usually thought to be 4 B.C. This is based on a chronology provided by the Jewish historian Josephus, who was usually accurate about such things and wrote in great detail about Herod's life. It is possible to use a chronology provided by Josephus and arrive at a date of 4 B.C. for Herod's death. In fact I would suggest that Josephus, writing about 100 years after Herod, thought Herod died in 4 B.C. However, other information provided by Josephus makes the 4 B.C. date implausible. I think 1 B.C. is the more likely date. This affects estimates for the date of the birth of Jesus, who was born before Herod died.

Josephus describes a series of events leading to Herod's death. On a day when Herod has a man named Mathias killed and appoints a new high priest, Josephus says "And that very night there was an eclipse of the moon." [Josephus: Antiquities 17:6:4] A sequence of events then leads up to Herod's death, which is followed shortly afterwards by a Passover. Eclipses make excellent dating markers, because today we can know precisely when they occurred, even in the distant past. The standard understanding is that this was the eclipse of March 13, 4 B.C. Passover was exactly one month later. Lunar eclipses occur only during full moons, and Passover is also always on a full moon. (For a tool to see when past eclipses occurred, see  http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/JLEX/JLEX-AS.html, set the city to Jerusalem and dial in the century before Christ. Because there was no year 0 B.C., in this tool the year 0 is 1 B.C., -1 is 2 B.C., etc.) Using the eclipse described by Josephus, there are three problems with a 4 B.C. date - a minor problem, a major problem, and an enormous problem.

The minor problem with identifying the 4 B.C eclipse as the one mentioned by Josephus is that it wasn't much of an eclipse. The 4 B.C. eclipse was only a partial eclipse, it did not begin until after midnight (12:03 a.m) Jerusalem time, and at its maximum extent it covered less than half of the moon. As astronomical events go, this was a minor event that would not be widely noticed, and it would seem surprising to find it noted by a historian - it is the only eclipse Josephus mentions in all his writings.

The major problem is that there was exactly one lunar month between the eclipse and Passover. During that time Josephus says the following things happened. I have placed next to these events what I think would be a minimum time duration for each.
1. Herod slowly got sick with worms and sent for physicians (2 days) [Antiquities 17:6:5]
2. At his physicians' recommendation, he traveled to a warm bath spot beyond the Jordan to bathe (2 days)
3. He got sicker and returned to Jericho. He now believes he will die (2 days)
4. He called to him all the leading men of the Jewish nation, and they came. He imprisons them, ordering that they be executed when he dies, so that men would mourn his death (4 days)
5. Herod receives from Rome a letter, Herod briefly revives and he orders Antipater killed (1 day) [Antiquities 17:7:1]
6. He makes numerous appointments, and five days after having Antipater killed, Herod dies (5 days) [Antiquities 17:8:1]
7. Salome and Alexas release the imprisoned officials, saying this was Herod's order, and then afterward announce that Herod has died (1 day) [Antiquities 17:8:2]
8. Herod's body is moved from Jericho to Herculaneum, where a very elaborate funeral for Herod is held and he was buried (2 days) [Antiquities 17:8:3]
9. Archelaus mourns for 7 days as prescribed by tradition (7 days) [Antiquities 17:8:4]
10. Archelaus goes up to the Temple and is installed as the new head of government, and greets the people (1 day)
11. Some Jewish leaders petition Archelaus to appoint a different high priest and punish some of Herod's friends (1 day)[Antiquities 17:9:1]
12. Archelaus sends many messengers to argue with the people about this, all of whom are badly received (3 days)
13. Passover approaches, and Archelaus has to break up a seditious group gathering ahead of the feast. During the feast of Passover itself, violence is extreme and 3000 men are killed. (2 days) [Antiquities 17:9:3]

The total days in this sequence is 33, which is longer than the one lunar month between the eclipse and Passover. Furthermore, the times I have listed for these events are minimums, and for some of them one would naturally assume they took much longer. The slow sickness and attempted treatment read as if they took longer than I have allowed, and there is no good reason to cram the letter from Rome, brief recovery, and execution of Antipater all into 1 day. Finally, the rebellion against Archelaus probably took much longer than the total of 6 days I have allowed. In conclusion, in 4 B.C., there was not enough time between the eclipse and the Passover.

And yet, there is still a bigger problem. The date for the 4 B.C. eclipse, March 3, fell on the Jewish holiday of Purim. The reason Josephus mentions the eclipse is to tie it to Herod's execution of 40 Jewish zealots who tore down statues of Roman eagles that Herod set up at the gate of the temple. It is unlikely that Herod was so politically tone-deaf as to execute Jewish patriots on the holiday that celebrates the fact that Jews were saved from execution in the days of Esther. Furthermore, Herod apparently convened a court to make the sentence, and it is more unlikely that a court would be convened on a holiday. Finally, Josephus says this happened on a Jewish "fast day" [Antiquities 17:6:3 and 17:6:4]. But Purim could not be a fast day - it was a feast day, a celebration day. The March 3 day must be wrong. This all could not have happened on Purim.

A better candidate eclipse is the eclipse of January 9, 1 B.C. This was a total eclipse beginning in Jerusalem at 10:26 p.m., with totality of the eclipse lasting for 79 minutes. In 1 B.C., Passover came three months later, allowing enough time for the events described in Josephus to occur. One can read Josephus online here, beginning with the passages I have cited: http://www.biblestudytools.com/history/flavius-josephus/antiquities-jews/book-17/chapter-6.html?p=3

The Sovereign Debt Waterfall Part 3 - Over the Edge

   It's hard to make predictions about the economy, because the economy is the sum of an enormous number of factors, not all of which can be known or understood. However, I think the idea that the United States is approaching the sovereign debt waterfall is a safer prediction than most. The reason is that the current in the river is so strong that it will overwhelm everything else that happens. In this metaphor, the river's current is the greater than $1 trillion annual deficit the United States is running, along with the difficulty of doing anything that can meaningfully reduce it. I still guesstimate that it will take a few years to get there, but on the timing of the prediction I have no confidence at all.
   The U.S. funds its budget deficit with auctions of Treasury Bills and Bonds. These are government IOU's ranging from 3 months to 30 years. The buyer of a 3 month Treasury Bill is loaning the government money for 3 months. The interest rates are low, since the U.S. government is presumed to be a safe borrower - 3 month interest rates as of October 31, 2011 are 0.01%, 30 year interest rates are 3.25%, while 1 year, 2 year, 10 year, etc. rates are somewhere in between. The U.S. Treasury auctions this debt weekly usually on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, and usually auctions about $60 billion a week. This is enough to cover the U.S. deficit, along with rolling over previous U.S. debt that comes due.
   Interest rates typically rise or fall based on several factors, mostly expectations of inflation - investors want their money to earn more than the inflation rate. But when a country approaches the waterfall, the interest rates begin to rise for an entirely different reason - investors begin to fear that the country will not pay back its debt. This can be easily observed in Europe today, since all the countries in the European Union use the same currency, and a Euro is a Euro is a Euro; the value of the Euro and the inflation rate are the same for all Euro countries. A Euro in Greece buys the same amount of gold, or oil, or whatever as a Euro in Germany. However, German 10 year bonds, denominated in Euros, have an interest rate of a 1.7%, while Italian 10 year bonds, also denominated in Euros, are 6.1% (October 31, 2011 figures). The reason for the difference is that investors have a sneaking suspicion that Italy just might default on its debt, and the increased risk causes them to demand a higher interest rate. In March 2010, Greek bonds and German bonds had almost the same interest rate in the 3% range. Then Greece reached the edge of the waterfall and Greek interest rates rapidly shot to the moon, eventually going over 180%.
   This is what I believe it will look like when the U.S. reaches the edge of the waterfall. In a very short period of time - just days or weeks - we will go from smooth sailing as far as interest rates are concerned to completely unmanageable. This is what happened to Greece. It will happen suddenly, because it will be triggered by a panic. We won't be able to undo the panic, because the panic will be for good reason. There are already people who invest in long term government bonds who do not expect the government to honor the debt many years from now, but instead believe they will be able to sell to someone else between now and then. When those people change their minds, they will try to sell and interest rates will shoot up. It is happening in slower motion in Europe, since the European Union is working on all kinds of plans, schemes and devices to try to bail out member countries, and some of the plans will work at least for a little while. The U.S. is too big for anyone to bail out.
   When interest rates hit unmanageable levels, we are at the edge of the waterfall. No government, U.S., Greece, or anyone else, will sell its debt at rates like 50% or 100%, because if it did, interest rates would soon soak up all the money the government takes in. So at this time, business as usual, as we have done it for more than 80 years, will stop. What happens next depends on the government's decisions. Below I will describe what I think is the default case. This is what will happen if the government takes the least action, either out of choice, or a lack of will, or political gridlock.
   The government can't issue debt any more, so the debt stops growing, deficit spending stops immediately. The government can't roll over its previous debt either, so we actually will start paying down the debt. This will give us what Charles called the "draconian Bachmann" solution on steroids. Without new debt, we will be able to service all existing debt (which will still have low interest rates). If we try to pay for all our entitlement programs, we will not have quite enough money to do it. We will then have zero money left over to fund all the rest of the government programs - no money for defense, NASA, pay for any government employees, etc. Of course that won't work, so we will figure out some way to cut entitlements and ongoing programs both and fund them both at low levels. The overall scope of the cutbacks will be much more than the $1 trillion annual deficits we currently run. This will plunge the economy into its worst short term downturn ever, as ripple effects of unemployment, etc. spread throughout. This will be a deflationary event. It won't last forever, but will last for several years and be enormously painful.
   The paragraph above describes the default case, which is what happens if government doesn't do much. However, I suspect the government will find the above scenario intolerable and will inject itself vigorously into the process, changing the situation in ways that are less predictable. The government could decide not to honor its external debt. Can't you just hear it: "Why should our government pay China when it won't pay its own veterans?" This would allow more money to be used to fund ongoing operations, but would harm trade and hurt the value of savings accounts that include U.S. debt. The government could try to print money to fund its operations, although it would have to be done via real printing (you get your money in physical $20 dollar bills) rather than the current fractional lending approach won't work on the waterfall's edge. That could lead to hyperinflation. Or it could try something we haven't even though of. There is no painless solution, though.