The Increasing Oil Spill Rates

I’ve seen a bit of angst over the fact that the government and BP keep increasing their estimates of how much oil is spewing into the Gulf of Mexico. Hardly mentioned is the fact that the earlier lower estimates may have been correct, and that the current, higher estimates are also correct. This is to be expected.

The pressure at the spew point is about 12,000 psi – very high. When the spew started, the rate at which it spewed was constrained by some choke point – I don’t know exactly where that was, but of course there would be a choke point somewhere in the system. But with oil, sediment, sand and seawater speeding through the choke point, rapid erosion would occur, even if the choke point was made of steel. The erosion would broaden the choke point to allow an even faster rate of spew. This will continue to increase until the choke point is very broad and the pressure decreases a lot, or until they fix the problem in some fashion (capping it, relief wells, etc.) At that point most of the oil in the reservoir will be in the Gulf, unfortunately.

What I don’t understand is why the government and BP haven’t bothered to explain what I just said. It detracts from their credibility for them to keep upping their estimates of the spew rate without explaining why.